Contrast-FEL—A Test for Differences in Selective Pressures at Individual Sites among Clades and Sets of Branches

A number of evolutionary hypotheses can be tested by comparing selective pressures among sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree. When the question of interest is to identify specific sites within genes that may be evolving differently, a common approach is to perform separate analyses on subsets of sequences and compare parameter estimates in a post hoc fashion. This approach is statistically suboptimal and not always applicable. Here, we develop a simple extension of a popular fixed effects likelihood method in the context of codon-based evolutionary phylogenetic maximum likelihood testing, Contrast-FEL. It is suitable for identifying individual alignment sites where any among the K≥2 sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree have detectably different ω ratios, indicative of different selective regimes. Using extensive simulations, we show that Contrast-FEL delivers good power, exceeding 90% for sufficiently large differences, while maintaining tight control over false positive rates, when the model is correctly specified. We conclude by applying Contrast-FEL to data from five previously published studies spanning a diverse range of organisms and focusing on different evolutionary questions.     

In Pursuit of Safety: One-Hundred Years of Toxicological Risk Assessment

The publication in 1962 of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring marks the mid-point in a century that saw, in its first half, the emergence of public health concerns related to human exposures to chemicals, and, in its second half, the emergence of public policies to deal with those concerns. Those policies made it imperative that the scientific community come to grips with the problem of identifying exposure levels not likely to cause harm. This problem was not significantly discussed within the scientific community until the 1950s, and well-described methods for practical solutions to it did not appear until the 1970s. An important report from the National Academy of Sciences, published in 1983 (Risk Assessment in the Federal Government), provided an analysis of these emerging methods, and recommended a useful framework for the assessment and management of risk. This framework remains central to public health and regulatory decision-making. A high-level perspective is offered on events leading to and following the 1983 report. The article describes early thinking about chemical toxicity and the scientific path that thinking followed through the 20th century, and to the present.     

Temperature and embryonic development in polar marine invertebrates

The life-history tactics of many Antarctic marine invertebrates suggest that the commonly observed slow rates of growth are adaptations to the pattern of food availability, and not due to low temperature per se. This implies that marine invertebrates have been able, over the course of evolutionary time, to compensate their rates of embryonic development for the effect of temperature. Data from north Atlantic copepods indicate that this is so. It is therefore suggested that the slow rates of embryonic development in many Antarctic marine invertebrates are the result of large egg size, and not the low temperature. Large, slowly developing eggs are part of a suite of tactics, often called K-strategies, which characterise many marine invertebrates in Antarctica.     

Ecological interactions in Aedes species on Reunion Island

Two invasive, container‐breeding mosquito species, Aedes aegypti (Stegomyia aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Stegomyia albopicta) (Diptera: Culicidae), have different distribution patterns on Reunion Island. Aedes albopictus occurs in all areas and Ae. aegypti colonizes only some restricted areas already occupied by Ae. albopictus. This study investigates the abiotic and biotic ecological mechanisms that determine the distribution of Aedes species on Reunion Island. Life history traits (duration of immature stages, survivorship, fecundity, estimated finite rate of increase) in Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were compared at different temperatures. These fitness measures were characterized in both species in response to competitive interactions among larvae. Aedes aegypti was drastically affected by temperature, performing well only at around 25 °C, at which it achieved its highest survivorship and greatest estimated rate of increase. The narrow distribution of this species in the field on Reunion Island may thus relate to its poor ability to cope with unfavourable temperatures. Aedes aegypti was also more negatively affected by high population densities and to some extent by interactions with Ae. albopictus, particularly in the context of limited food supplies. Aedes albopictus exhibited better population performance across a range of environmental conditions. Its ecological plasticity and its superior competitive ability relative to its congener may further enhance its invasion success on Reunion Island.     

Extending phylogeography to account for lineage fusion

Secondary contact between long isolated populations has several possible outcomes. These include the strengthening of preexisting reproductive isolating mechanisms via reinforcement, the emergence of a hybrid lineage that is distinct from its extant parental lineages and which occupies a spatially restricted zone between them, or complete merging of two populations such that parental lineages are no longer extant (“lineage fusion” herein). The latter scenario has rarely been explicitly considered in single‐species and comparative phylogeographic studies, yet it has the potential to impact inferences about population history and levels of congruence. In this paper, we explore the idea that insights into past lineage fusion may now be possible, owing to the advent of next‐generation sequencing. Using simulated DNA sequence haplotype datasets (i.e., loci with alleles comprised of a set of linked nucleotide polymorphisms), we examined basic requirements (number of loci and individuals sampled) for identifying cases when a present‐day panmictic population is the product of lineage fusion, using an exemplar statistical framework—approximate Bayesian computation. We found that with approximately 100 phased haplotype loci (each 400 bp long) and modest sample sizes of individuals (10 per population), lineage fusion can be detected under rather challenging scenarios. This included some scenarios where reticulation was fully contained within a Last Glacial Maximum timeframe, provided that mixing was symmetrical, ancestral gene pools were moderately to deeply diverged, and the lag time between the fusion event and gene pool sampling was relatively short. However, the more realistic case of asymmetrical mixing is not prohibitive if additional genetic data (e.g., 400 loci) are available. Notwithstanding some simplifying assumptions of our simulations and the knowledge gaps that remain about the circumstances under which lineage fusion is potentially detectable, we suggest that the recent release from data limitation allows phylogeographers to expand the scope of inferences about long‐term population history.     

Island evolutionary biogeography: analysis of the weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) of the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)

Aim I analysed distributional and phylogenetic information on weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) from the Falklands, and integrated it with molecular, palaeontological and geological information to infer a geobiotic scenario. Location Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas). Methods The panbiogeographical analysis was based on data on 23 Falkland species and their related taxa from southern South America. For the cladistic biogeographical analysis I analysed six weevil taxa for which phylogenetic hypotheses are available (the generic groups Cylydrorhinus, Strangaliodes and Falklandius, and the genera Antarctobius, Germainiellus and Puranius). Results from this analysis were compared with previous regionalizations. Cenocrons (sets of taxa that share the same biogeographical history) were identified by considering temporal information provided by fossils and molecular clocks. Finally, a geobiotic scenario was proposed by integrating the available information. Results Six generalized tracks were detected: Maule–Valdivian forests, Magellanic forest, Magellanic moorland, Falkland Islands, Magellanic forest–Magellanic moorland, and Magellanic forest–Falkland Islands. A node was identified in the Magellanic forest, based on the overlap of two generalized tracks. A single general area cladogram was obtained, implying the following sequence: (Magellanic moorland (Maule–Valdivian forests (Magellanic forest, Falkland Islands))). The Falklands are classified here as a biogeographical province in the Austral realm, Andean region and Subantarctic subregion. Falkland weevils seem to belong to a single Subantarctic cenocron. The sequence of events deduced implies the following steps: development of the Subantarctic biota in southern South America, arrival of the Falkland crustal block from South Africa in the Early Cretaceous, geodispersal of the Subantarctic cenocron from southern South America to the Falklands during the Early Oligocene, vicariance of the Magellanic moorland, vicariance of the Maule–Valdivian forests, and final vicariance between the Magellanic forest and the Falkland Islands. Main conclusions The biotic components identified support the connection of the Falkland weevils with the Magellanic forest. Falkland weevils belong to a single cenocron, dated to at least the Early Oligocene, when geodispersal from southern South America may have occurred. An older African cenocron may have been replaced completely by the Subantarctic one when the proto‐Falklands made contact with the Patagonian continental shelf. A geobiotic scenario implying vicariance events related to sea‐level variations could explain the distributional patterns analysed herein.     

Contrasting patterns of density‐dependent selection at different life stages can create more than one fast–slow axis of life‐history variation

There has been much recent research interest in the existence of a major axis of life‐history variation along a fast–slow continuum within almost all major taxonomic groups. Eco‐evolutionary models of density‐dependent selection provide a general explanation for such observations of interspecific variation in the "pace of life." One issue, however, is that some large‐bodied long‐lived “slow” species (e.g., trees and large fish) often show an explosive “fast” type of reproduction with many small offspring, and species with “fast” adult life stages can have comparatively “slow” offspring life stages (e.g., mayflies). We attempt to explain such life‐history evolution using the same eco‐evolutionary modeling approach but with two life stages, separating adult reproductive strategies from offspring survival strategies. When the population dynamics in the two life stages are closely linked and affect each other, density‐dependent selection occurs in parallel on both reproduction and survival, producing the usual one‐dimensional fast–slow continuum (e.g., houseflies to blue whales). However, strong density dependence at either the adult reproduction or offspring survival life stage creates quasi‐independent population dynamics, allowing fast‐type reproduction alongside slow‐type survival (e.g., trees and large fish), or the perhaps rarer slow‐type reproduction alongside fast‐type survival (e.g., mayflies—short‐lived adults producing few long‐lived offspring). Therefore, most types of species life histories in nature can potentially be explained via the eco‐evolutionary consequences of density‐dependent selection given the possible separation of demographic effects at different life stages.     

Optimal reproductive phenology under size‐dependent cannibalism

Intra‐cohort cannibalism is an example of a size‐mediated priority effect. If early life stages cannibalize slightly smaller individuals, then parents face a trade‐off between breeding at the best time for larval growth or development and predation risk from offspring born earlier. This game‐theoretic situation among parents may drive adaptive reproductive phenology toward earlier breeding. However, it is not straightforward to quantify how cannibalism affects seasonal egg fitness or to distinguish emergent breeding phenology from alternative adaptive drivers. Here, we devise an age‐structured game‐theoretic mathematical model to find evolutionary stable breeding phenologies. We predict how size‐dependent cannibalism acting on eggs, larvae, or both changes emergent breeding phenology and find that breeding under inter‐cohort cannibalism occurs earlier than the optimal match to environmental conditions. We show that emergent breeding phenology patterns at the level of the population are sensitive to the ontogeny of cannibalism, that is, which life stage is subject to cannibalism. This suggests that the nature of cannibalism among early life stages is a potential driver of the diversity of reproductive phenologies seen across taxa and may be a contributing factor in situations where breeding occurs earlier than expected from environmental conditions.